Monday, May 16, 2011

Who's The Best Player On The Thunder?

I’m about to make an argument that sounds really stupid, but hear me out. Why are we so set in our ways that we believe Kevin Durant is, without a doubt, the best player on the Thunder? First, we have to ask ourselves what we think a “best player” should be. Should he simply be a transcendent scorer? Or should he be a well rounded player who gives you a lot of everything? I don’t mean to disparage Durant, but I think we know by now that, outside his scoring, he doesn’t do much else at an elite level. I want to show that Russell Westbrook at least has a solid case for the best player on the Thunder.
We can start by breaking down what aspects we want to look at. In my opinion, the 4 biggest aspects of basketball are defense, scoring, rebounding, and passing. We all know that Durant is possibly the best scorer in the league. He takes that category in a landslide. But what about the other 3? Let’s start by looking at rebounding.
Kevin Durant, this year, had a TRR of 10.3. TRR is an estimate of the percentage of available rebounds a player grabs while he’s on the floor. It’s a more accurate minute and pace adjusted way of looking at rebounding. The average TRR for all small forwards who played at least 20 games and 20 mpg this year was 9.2. So we can say that Durant was approximately 12 better at rebounding than the average small forward (((Durant’s TRR - Average TRR)/Average TRR) * 100). Russell Westbrook’s TRR this year was 7.8. The league average for all point guards who played 20 games and averaged at least 20 mpg was 5.8. Using the same formula, we see that Westbrook is about 34.5 better at rebounding than others at his position. So we see that Westbrook is a better rebounder for position than Durant. That category goes to Russell.
Now let’s look at passing. I’ll be using AR, which measures the rate of assists compiled against possessions used. Durant’s AR this year was a 10.42, and the league average for qualifying small forwards was 15.91. So we see that Durant was about 34.5% worse than average as a passer. Russell Westbrook’s AR this year was a 33.78, and the league average for point guards was 39.79. Therefore, Westbrook was about 15% worse than average as a passer. Both our subjects were below average playmakers, but Westbrook was slightly less worse for his position. Therefore, the category goes to him.
Defense is probably the hardest category to measure statistically. There’s really no good way to do it. For my purposes, I looked at a combination of steals and blocks. Keep in mind, this is extremely flawed. KD averaged 2.21 combined steals and blocks per game, and the league average for qualifying small forwards was 1.57. That puts him almost 41% above the average at his position. Westbrook’s combined steals and blocks per game amounted to 2.33 a game, and the league average at his position was 1.5 a game. That means Westbrook was 55% better than average at his position. These numbers are nearly meaningless though. Anecdotal and visual evidence, along with our flawed statistical analysis, tells us Westbrook is the better defender. He has this category.
So there you have it. Durant is a better scorer, but Westbrook is a better passer, rebounder, and defender (for his position, of course). Does that mean Westbrook is definitively better than Durant? No. It means that next time we crown Durant as the leader and top dog of the Thunder, maybe we should step back a bit.

All stats are courtesy of Hoopdata